Since other sightings are unconfirmed & hazy, the only other reasonable info to go on is the Radar info other wise every one is looking for a needle in a hay stack. From the origonal reports(read all earlyer blogs) the Loc of 1st Radar Ident E151 18' S32 03'. MDX got to this loc because it was 6 degree's off course from Taree, went west throu ice cloud & lost it's position to turn left. After Ident MDX turned around & headed roughly 95 to 100 degree's Magnetic to get to the coast so to be at lower altitude to get the ice off, but MDX went back throu the ice cloud & collected more ice than the aircraft could handle & came down. From the Flight Plan & having a 30 to 40Kt tail wind the ground speed matches the time it would take to go that distance from 1st radar to when MDX disappeared off radar over Craven/Stanford. From the Pilot calling out his Altitude & the timing in the recording, I worked out MDX to be desending at 1600ft/min, from Craven/Stanford crash area is about 9km/5nm to the east. There are a few variables, was MDX actualy at 5000ft over Craven/Stanford or higher or lower? The Radar said over Craven but could have been over Stanford if going direct to Foster(lights)? Was MDX in a high speed descent or a stalling lower speed descent?
Rob Campbell
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